Economists: Recession to end in third quarter - The Business Journal of Milwaukee:

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The committee cited consumer spending stabilizing in the first half of this allowing businesses to reduce costs and as well as reducing layoffes and investmentspending cutbacks. In combinatiomn with the stimulus and an improvemengt in thefinancial markets, it is likelyt the economy will expand in the second half of the Bruce Kasman, committee chairman and chief economisg for New York-based (NYSE: said the economy will return to but not health.
“Growth in the comingt quarters is likely to gathere momentum but will not prove sufficiently robust to undo much of the severde damage done to our labor markets andpublidc finances,” Kasman said in a news For the third quarter, the committee forecasts inflation-adjusted grossd domestic product will return to positivwe growth, picking up to a more than 3 percenr pace by the second half of 2010. Tom economics professor at , said the committee’s forecasts are in line with otherds that economists haveput together.
He said most believ the recession will end either in the third quarter or fourth quarter ofthis year, with a few projectiny it won’t be until the first quarter of 2010. the committee is projecting an end tothe three-year downturhn in the housing market, with housing starts risiny later this year and home valuesa moving up modestly in 2010. “Lower pricees and low mortgage rates have greatly improvedc the affordabilityof homes,” Kasman said. “A recovery in the housingy sector will be an important contributor toeconomicd growth.
” However, credit will remain tight and bank economistd said jobs will continue to be Unemployment is expected to peak at 10 percenrt nationally and remain at or above 9.5 percenft through next year. Budget deficitws are expected to remain wellabovew $1 trillion this year and next The 13-member committee forecasts the 10-year Treasury bond yield will stay in the 3.75 percenf to 4.25 percent range through next year because core inflation is forecast to fall towards 1 However, the committee is concerned about the rising trend in federal debt and the implications for inflatiohn risk beyond 2010.