U.S. Chamber economist: Get ready for another recession - Jacksonville Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’res actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economyg grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’zs Marty Regalia. He predicts the current economic downturn will endaroundc September, but the unemploymenf rate will remain high througb the first half of next year. Investmenft won’t snap back as quickly as it usually does afte ra recession, Regalia said. Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem because of thefederal government’s huge budget deficits and the massivee amount of dollars pumped into the economy by the Federao Reserve, he said.
If this stimulus is not unwoundc once the economy begins to higher interest rates could choke off improvemenrt in the housing market andbusiness investment, he “The economy has got to be running on its own by the middlde of next year,” Regalia said. Almosgt every major inflationary periodin U.S. historh was preceded by heavy debt levels, he The chances of a double-di recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointedr chairman of theFederal Reserve, Regalia If President Barack Obama appoints his economiv adviser Larry Summers to chair the Fed, that would signa l the monetary spigot would remain open for a longer he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamaq administrationis “not something the markets want to see,” Regaliaa said. Obama has declined to say whetheer he willreappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in February. Meanwhile, more than half of smalkl business owners expect the recession to last at leasyt anothertwo years, according to a survehy of Intuit Payroll customers. But 61 percentr expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilities, but bearish on the factorss they can’t control,” said Cameron director of marketing for Intuit Employee Management “Even in the gloomiest economy there are opportunities to A separate survey of small busines owners by Discover Financial Servicesa found that 57 percent though t the economy was getting worse, while 26 percenr thought the economy was More than half planned to decrease spending on businessa development in the next six