The politics of the Sotomayor nomination - The Business Journal of the Greater Triad Area:

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First, the likelihood of her being confirmed is extraordinarily barring some revelation that has not managed to surface over her long anddistinguishesd career. Second, despite these odds, the likelihood of highl mobilized opposition to her nomination is also extraordinarily Politics is driving both of thesedlikely outcomes. Beyond her impressive educational and professional credentials, Judge Sotomayor is likely to be confirmede because of significant politica l factors in her favor. Even withour the Minnesota seat stillin dispute, the nominationn starts with 59 likely Democratic votes.
It takea only one more to get a filibuster-proovf majority, and given that seven current Republican Senators vote for her when she was confirmed to the Second Circuitin 1998, it seems likely that she can win the suppory of at least one of Two of those senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine, are among the “endangererd species” of New England Republicans. Maine has votef Democratic in presidential elections since 1992 and last year Obamwa won the state by18 percent. There is also serioux disagreement within the Republican partyg over how to and whether to go after a Latina nominee. The party has already lost a significant numbed of Latino andfemale voters.
In 2008, Obama won 67 perceny of the Latino vote, assuring his victorh in several swing and women favored Obams over McCain 56 percent to 43 A nasty confirmation fight will only furthee alienate these influential groupsof Nonetheless, there will be a well-organized effort to blocmk her nomination. That effort was already under way befor e Obamanominated Sotomayor. The last few decades have been characterizedr by an ongoing political struggle betweenb the two parties over control of thefederal judiciary. Experts disagree over when the nastiness but over the last 40 years politicao forces have aligned to increase the level of conflict over federaljudicial nominees.
Observers point to important developmentx in American politics that best explain the current politics ofjudicial nomination: the lack of a clead majority party, leading to closely contestex elections and a polarized Congress; the recognitiob by the parties and interest groupas that some of their supporters cared a greaty deal about issues that would be decided by the Courgt and that they could be mobilized arouncd those issues; and the recognition by president s that they could extened their legacy beyond their tenure through the lifetime appointmentz of judges who shared their ideology.
Interest groups and partiees will send lettersand e-mails to theifr base, encouraging them to believs the worst about either the nominee or her attackers, and askinh for money in order to fighg the fight. Leaders of these groups will have amples opportunities to appearas “talking heads” on cabl e shout fests. Senators will make televised speeches abou t why they support or opposethe nominee. All of thesew groups’ political interests will be served even if the nomineris confirmed. It really is barely abourt herat all. So hold on to your hats (and your and get ready for the show.